Hidden Pulse

EU and Bank protection – Bank earnings and buybacks – Trump’s Fed chair nominee

EU weakens plan on bank protection, risks ECB clash on bad loans

EU weakens plan on bank protection, risks ECB clash on bad loans

The European Commission proposed on Wednesday watered-down measures to help guard European Union banks against future crises, after two years of fruitless talks among the 28 EU states on more ambitious plans. The new proposals were designed to win over Germany, the EU’s largest economy and the staunchest opponent of sharing banking risks among EU states, but the German banking lobby quickly dismissed them.

The proposals could also slow the European Central Bank’s plans to reduce the exposure of banks to bad loans. Shares of Italian banks rose, since they would face big losses if the EU mandated they quickly unload bad debts [nL8N1MM4Q8].

The Commission proposal would reduce the sharing of banking risks and set strict conditions that states must meet before their banks gain access to safety nets funded at the EU level. Those changes were intended to placate Germany, whose departing finance minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, repeatedly argued that sharing risks meant richer German banks would prop up weaker banks in other EU countries. His successor may be equally dubious.  Full Story

Sounds familiar; it’s an early signal informing us that something similar is set to take place in the US but on a much larger scale. To get the masses to embrace this Bull Market, the era of easy money has to be brought back.  So a variation of liar loans is set to debut in the future.

 

Bank earnings: ‘lower for longer’ means buybacks will continue

Bank earnings: ‘lower for longer’ means buybacks will continue

When big banks kick off the third-quarter earnings season next week, a familiar theme is likely to dominate: it’s hard to make money in a lower-for-longer world.  Analysts expect banks to report tepid growth in nearly all their business lines, from mortgage originations to investment banking to lending, and most of the good news story is likely to come from a practice that’s often considered a sign that companies are out of ideas: issuing debt to buy back stock.

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. JPM, -0.37% kicks off earnings season Thursday, followed that day by Citigroup Inc. C, -0.06% On Friday, Bank of America Corp. BAC, -0.37% reports, followed by Wells Fargo & Co. WFC, -0.27%

“Results are likely to be tepid due to very weak loan growth, modest increase in net interest margins, and weak capital markets related trends,” somewhat offset by lower expenses and better-performing loans, wrote J.P. Morgan analyst Vivek Juneja in a note Friday. “On average, most of the (quarter-over-quarter) EPS growth in 3Q is likely to be led by share buybacks at our banks,” Juneja added. Full Story

Very few will spot the main point in this story; banks are admitting that this recovery is bogus and that the only way to maintain the illusion of all is well is to take on more debt to buy their shares and in doing magically boost EPS.  Share buybacks are set to soar again, and we suspect that before this bull keels over, that the total amount of funds put aside for Dividends and share buybacks will soar to $2 trillion over a 12 month period.

 

Trump Pick for Fed’s Bank Regulation Chief Wins Senate Confirmation

Trump Pick for Fed's Bank Regulation Chief Wins Senate Confirmation

Randy Quarles, a Bush-era regulator whom Democrats criticized for not doing enough to prevent the 2008 financial crisis, has been confirmed by the U.S. Senate to lead the Federal Reserve’s oversight of Wall Street.

The 60-year-old won approval to join the central bank’s board of governors in a 65-32 vote on Thursday, Oct. 5, as well as approval to serve as vice chairman of banking supervision. The decisions followed a split recommendation from the chamber’s banking committee in early September and came just in time to prevent the panel from shrinking to less than half its full complement of seven members when Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer leaves mid-month.

All of the governors are members of the bank’s 12-person Federal Open Market Committee that sets monetary policy, so the excess vacancies would have shifted the balance of power even further toward the five regional Fed presidents who serve on the panel, as well as heightened uncertainty about the pace of interest-rate adjustments.

Even so, Quarles’ portfolio as head of the Fed’s regulatory programs, handled on a de facto basis by Governor Daniel Tarullo before his departure earlier this year, is vastly different from that of the 73-year-old Fischer, a monetary policy expert. Among his responsibilities will be overseeing annual stress tests designed to ensure that the largest U.S. banks have sufficient capital to withstand an economic crisis. Full Story

The dominoes are all falling place; the argument we put forward almost one year ago that Dodd-Frank would either be gutted out or eliminated is gaining traction.  If Trump replaces Yellen with a dovish leaning person, then its game over for Dodd-Frank and the market will have the fuel necessary to soar to stupendous levels.

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AAPL

TablePRess 2 with YahooF script
date#NAME?        AAPL
IBM230120C00170000
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Table press table

Market Update Stocks (Current price updated every 15 minutes)
SymbolEntry DateEntry PriceCurent PricePositionComments
HTLDJun 201917.1116.33Open1/3rd of a position 17.401/3rd at 18.90 and 1/3rd at 15.05
HAMar 202120.0513.62Open1/3rd of a position 24.90 and 1/3rd at 15.20.
CRSMar 202138.1741.87Open1/3rd at 38.34 and 1/3rd at 38.00.
FISVMay 2021106.73100.35Open1/3Rd of a position at 114.20 and 1/3rd at 99.27
BWXTMay 202158.4960.79Open1/3rd of a position 64.20, 1/3rd at 58.45 & 1/6th 47.10
AYXJul 202168.4240.44Open1/3rd 83.87, 1/3rd at 68.60 and 1/3rd at 52.80
LDOSAug 202190.33109.49Open1/3rd of a position at 96, and 1/3rd at 84.65. Sold half in may at 110.75 for a gain of 22%. Place a stop at 90.00
COUPAug 2021167.1361.15Open1/3rd at 249 and 1/3rd at 219.45, 1/3rd at 110.00 and 1/3rd at 90.10
TFSLOct 202116.8413.79Open1/3rd at 19.74, 1/3rd at 16.79 and 1/3rd 14.01
MGNIOct 202121.0310.68Open1/3rd of a position 26.04 1/3rd at 20.70 and 1/3rd at 16.35
KMBDec 2021131.2136.01Open1/3rd of a position
RGLDJan 202298.55110.67Open¼ of a position. Sold half at 144.30 in Mar for a gain of 46%.
KJan 20226273.07Open¼ at 63.10 and ¼ at 60.90. Place a stop at 60.00. Sold half at 73.50 in May for a gain of 18.5%
AMDFeb 2022107.6670.27Open¼ at 114, ¼ at 108 and ¼ at 101.
CPBFeb 20224352.99Open¼ of a position.
MSFTFeb 2022272.91245.12Open¼ at 300.60, ¼ at 281.05, ¼ at 257 and ¼ at 253
ASANFeb 20224513.51Open¼ at 57.00, ¼ at 43.20 & ¼ at 34.80
FIVNFeb 202289.164.43Open¼ at 96 and ¼ at 82.20
VALEApr 202214.3716.76Open¼ of a position at 15.84 and ¼ at 12.90
WMTMay 2022128.75149.89Open¼ at 133 & ¼ at 124.50
HALOJul 202244.0456.38Open¼ of a position
APDJul 2022237312.1Open¼ of a position
CFFNFeb 202111.68.29Open1/3rd at 12.40, 1/3rd at 11.22& 1/3rd at 11.19
BHEMar 202127.0228.09Open1/3rd at 28.98 and 1/3rd at 25.05.
TRIPMay 202136.9719.02Open1/3rd of a position 43.80, 1/3rd at 39.06 and 1/3rd at 28.05
MOMOAug 20217.95.74Open1/3rd of a position 12.80, 1/3rd, 9.60,1/3rd at 4.90 and 1/3rd at 4.40
CHPTDec 202116.3610.89Open1/3rd at 20.40, 1/3rd at 16.80, and 1/3rd at 11.90
GPNFeb 202212797.65Open¼ 136.90, ¼ at 126.00 & ¼ at119
HIMXFeb 202210.116.96Open¼ 10.27 and ¼ 9.96
GBTCMar 202223.18.76Open¼ 25.80 and ¼ 20.40
ETHEMar 202214.26.47Open¼ at 19.10 and ¼ 9.30
MJMar 202118.955.67Open1/3rd 20.55 and 1/3rd at 17.35.
TLTAug 2021130.85106.95Open1/3rd 145.80, 1/3rd at 131.20, 1/6th at 115 and 1/6th at 116.10
SAAAug 202126.5522.4Open1/3rd at 27.60 and 1/3rd at 25.50
TMFSep 202121.79.59Open1/3rd at 27.06, 1/6th at 17.10 and 1/6th at 15.60
ULOct 202153.151.17Open1/3rd of a position.
AFRMNov 202190.611.97Open1/3rd at 122.40, 1/3rd at 98.40 and 1/3rd at 51.00
WTWNov 2021224.16246.8Open1/3rd at 232.50, 1/3rd at 224 and 1/3rd at 216.00
XRTDec 202178.3264.93Open1/3rd at 91.50, 1/3rd at 83.25 and 1/3rd at 61.50
FINXJan 202226.819.45Open1/4th at 31.50, ¼ at 28.50 and ¼ at 20.40.
SGOLJan 202217.1116.97Open¼ of a position
TQQQFeb 202242.1520.82Open¼ at 56.10, ¼ at 45.00, ¼ at 41.50 and ¼ at 26.00
DEAFeb 202219.2515.24Open¼ at 20.20 and ¼ at 18
VZMar 202248.5736.89Open¼ at 51.55 and ¼ at 45.60
URAMar 202221.3719.49Open¼ position 23.30 and ¼ at 19.45
XBIJul 202273.580.59Open¼ position
BIBJul 20224859.35Open1/5th of a position
  Market Update Options (Current price updated on Mondays and Fridays)
SymbolEntry DateEntry PriceCurent PricePositionComments
IBM230120C00170000Mar 20212.80.19Open1/3rd of a position 4.50 and 1/3rd at 1.11. Sold half at 2.10 for a loss of 25%
KMB240119C00120000Jun 202217.721.63Open¼ of a position
VALE240119C00013000Jul 20222.93.45Open¼ of a position at 15.84 and ¼ at 12.90
QCOM240119C00125000Jul 202225.422.27Open¼ of a position
AAL230120P00010000Apr 20215.10.12Open1/3rd of a position
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Market Psychology: How the crowd always loses in the stock market?

Stock Market Psychology for Dummies: If you have common sense then Mass Psychology is easy to grasp If you understand how the mass mindset operates it provides you with an…
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