Semiconductor Industry News: Key Technical Developments
In each case, from an extended point of view, when the SOX found itself trading within these boundaries, it proved to be a brilliant long-term investment. A proper turnaround is near when our secondary indicator (MACD 2) drops below three on the lower panel. In at least one event (as shown by this very chart), the mentioned indicator hit rock bottom and failed to complete its entire cycle. However, this unexpectedly turned into an even greater opportunity.
Whenever a time-tested indicator struggles to complete its full cycle (meaning from the lows of oversold to the highs of overbought, and vice versa), the following move in the same direction tends to be twice as strong. Currently, our primary measure (MACD1) has fallen from an extremely overbought state to an almost ridiculously oversold condition. The most severe reading was -4.93 in October 2002, and our current figure is a negative 3.5. We speculate that it may well reach -6, and should this prediction come true, it would create a “screaming buy” opportunity.
Bullish Perspectives and SOX Predictions
The highly overbought reading (around January 2022) is totally bullish from a long-term viewpoint, as it suggests that MACD1 values will likely climb to new heights, in turn leading to new peaks for the SOX. We reckon that the SOX will triple before the next bull’s final act.
Without semiconductors, artificial intelligence is nothing but a pipe dream. Every sector connected to this market is destined to trend higher – the designers, manufacturers, and suppliers of the raw materials necessary to fuel this growing sector, and so on. For example, without Neon Gas, this very sector would be rendered useless.
Semiconductor Industry News: The Real news is the Supertrend
Significant wealth is gained by sticking to the super-trend, rather than constantly checking one’s portfolio. The upward phase of a super-trend cycle lasts much longer than its downward counterpart. A whopping 90% focus on the latter phase. We made a tidy sum from the companies in which we invested before the recent market correction – and these were not just paper profits, but gains we actually banked. The markets are currently going through a cleansing phase. Once this comes to an end, the era of massive profits shall start all over again.
Monthly Chart of the SOX via ETF SOXX
Adjusting the MACDs: A Method to the Madness
The settings on the MACDs here (first indicator) differ from those employed on the initial chart. One might ponder the rationale behind employing disparate values. While we have broached this subject numerous times over the years, allow us to provide a hint: there is, indeed, more than one way to skin a cat. In this particular chart, the MACDs are trading at a fresh nadir. Although this ETF is not as venerable as the SOX index, it aptly illustrates the incredible opportunity this sector shall furnish for the astute.
RSI and Support Zones: Identifying Opportunities
The RSI is also trading in the highly oversold realms. A robust zone of support exists in the 280 to 291 range, with solid support found within the 255 to 267 range. A test of these levels, or lower, would constitute a screaming buy. Should a fortuitous event transpire, with the ETF plummeting to the 222 to 237 range, it would be akin to a “back up the truck” moment.
A Brewing Opportunity in Semiconductors and A.I.
In summary, a colossal opportunity is fermenting in the Semiconductor and A.I. sector, potentially overshadowing any other semiconductor industry news. While news may tantalise the ears, it is the mastery of playing the trend that can truly enrich one’s bank account. Remain vigilant and astute, dear investor, for these burgeoning markets could provide unparalleled rewards for those who seize the opportunities that lie ahead.
Headline: A new era in stock market trading is upon us, and it requires a modified contrarian approach to navigate. The key lies in identifying extremes and exercising caution during market downturns. However, the Federal Reserve’s recent actions have highlighted the incompetence of its chairman, Jerome Powell, making it clear that the political system needs a drastic overhaul.
Market technicians, contrarians, the average Joe, and value investors alike will find themselves confounded by the new market system. In this era, anything goes, and volume and indicators will no longer provide an accurate outlook. Both fundamental and technical analysis methods will no longer be as effective, or perhaps even ineffective.
To navigate this new era, one must become a modified contrarian or market technician. Instead of relying on the masses jumping in as a signal to jump out, one must analyze the speed at which they are jumping in, the number of individuals jumping in compared to the volume that was dormant just a few months prior, and their staying power, among other factors.
Exercise caution during market downturns: a calculated approach
In light of the current market trends and the psychology of market participants, it is becoming increasingly apparent that the markets may soon test the lows witnessed back in 2022, and at least one index could trade to new lows. As tempting as it may be to jump into the market during a downturn, the current situation requires a more calculated approach.
However, the Federal Reserve’s chairman, Jerome Powell, has highlighted the incompetence of the political system, particularly during his psychotic helicopter money phase during the COVID crisis. To make matters worse, Powell even had the audacity to declare that a bit of inflation was good, and now he wants to battle the monster he created.
The Basics of Stock Market: Powell’s Incompetence
Verily, Powell’s actions are a textbook example of why one should never let someone with no experience run the Fed. His complete lack of understanding of basic economic principles is astounding. It seems he has no idea how inflation works or how it impacts the economy, and his erratic behaviour is making things worse for everyone. The fact that Powell is still in his position, despite his incompetence, is a damning indictment of the entire political system. He has no idea what he’s doing, yet he’s still in charge of the most important financial institution in the world. It’s time for him to step down and make way for someone who actually knows what they’re doing.
However, let us not forget that the stock market is a fickle mistress, and one must tread carefully when making bold statements. While Powell’s actions may seem misguided, it is important to remember that the stock market is not a simple beast. It is a complex system that is influenced by a multitude of factors, and one cannot simply blame Powell for all its woes.
That being said, it is clear that Powell’s actions have had a negative impact on the economy. By pushing so much money into the system after the COVID crash and then trying to destroy inflation after creating it, he has caused companies to fire people and could potentially lead to a recession. It’s time for him to step down and make way for someone who actually knows what they’re doing.
In conclusion, while Powell’s incompetence is a cause for concern, we must also remember that the stock market is a complex system that cannot be easily controlled. However, it is clear that Powell’s actions have had a negative impact on the economy, and it’s time for him to step down and make way for someone who actually knows what they’re doing.
Investing for Beginners: A Guide to Wealth Management for Financial Success
If you’re looking to build and preserve your wealth over time, then wealth management is a critical component of your financial planning. Managing your investments, insurance policies, real estate, and other assets is essential to achieving your long-term financial goals. In this comprehensive guide to wealth management, we’ll explore everything you need to know, including financial planning, retirement planning, investments, risk management, and the role of financial advisors.
Why Wealth Management is Important for Beginner Investors
Wealth management is essential for beginners looking to achieve financial success over the long term. Without a sound wealth management strategy, you risk losing your hard-earned wealth, whether through poor investment decisions, unforeseen events, or other factors outside your control. With effective wealth management, you can retire comfortably, pay for your children’s education, or leave a legacy for your loved ones.
Different Types of Investments for Wealth Management
Investing is a crucial part of wealth management, but there are many different types of investments to consider. Conservative investments, such as bonds and mutual funds, offer lower risk, while riskier investments like stocks and alternative investments offer higher returns. Finding the right balance between risk and return is crucial for achieving your financial goals.
How to Create a Financial Plan for Retirement
Retirement planning is an essential part of wealth management. A well-crafted retirement plan can help you achieve your financial goals and ensure a comfortable retirement. In this section, we’ll explore the steps involved in creating a financial plan for retirement, including setting retirement goals, estimating retirement expenses, determining retirement income sources, and more.
Tips for Managing Investment Risk
Investment risk is an inherent part of wealth management, but it can be managed effectively with the right strategies. In this section, we’ll explore some tips for managing investment risk, including diversification, asset allocation, and assessing your risk tolerance. By managing investment risk effectively, you can reduce the likelihood of losing your wealth and achieve your financial goals more effectively.
The Role of Financial Advisors in Wealth Management
Financial advisors play a crucial role in wealth management. They can help you create a comprehensive financial plan, choose the right investments, manage investment risk, and more. In this section, we’ll explore the role of financial advisors in wealth management and what you need to know to find the right advisor for your needs.
Investing for Retirement: A Guide to Wealth Management for the Future
Investing for retirement is a critical component of wealth management. In this section, we’ll explore the steps involved in investing for retirement, including setting retirement goals, choosing the right investments, managing investment risk, and more. By investing for retirement effectively, you can achieve your financial goals and ensure a comfortable retirement.
Understanding Investment Risk: Tips for Managing Risk in Wealth Management
Investment risk is a critical component of wealth management, but it can be managed effectively with the right strategies. In this section, we’ll explore some tips for managing investment risk, including diversification, asset allocation, and assessing your risk tolerance. By managing investment risk effectively, you can reduce the likelihood of losing your wealth and achieve your financial goals more effectively.
How to Manage Your Wealth: Tips and Strategies for Successful Investing
Managing your wealth effectively is critical to achieving your financial goals. This section will explore some tips and strategies for successful investing, including setting financial goals, choosing the right investments, managing investment risk, and more. By managing your wealth effectively, you can achieve financial security and peace of mind.
According to the Market Update from September 11, 2022, it was projected that if the markets followed a certain path, a test of the 9,900 to 10,500 range would potentially mark a bottom. This projection was based on the assumption that the markets would follow a pattern similar to that seen in 1973-74. If this were to occur, it would present a potentially significant opportunity for tactical investors to enter the market.
It is important to note that this projection was based on speculation and was not a guarantee of future market performance. It is not uncommon for markets to experience fluctuations and volatility, and it is important for investors to carefully research and evaluate any potential investment opportunities.
In November of 2022, the Nasdaq experienced two strong rallies, which may have set the stage for a test of the 12,300 to 12,600 range. If the Nasdaq is able to close at or above 12,600, it may pave the way for the market to reach or surpass its August highs. However, it is important to note that the future performance of the markets is always uncertain and that it is important for investors to carefully consider the risks and potential outcomes of any investment decisions.
In the August 27, 2022 Market Update, it was noted that the Dow had lost a relatively small amount of value, shedding less than 700 points since the previous update. At that time, the Dow was trading around 32,800, and it was suggested that risk-takers might consider opening long positions in the market.
In the August 2, 2022 Market Update, it was stated that the markets were entering a corrective phase and that the SPX had reached short-term targets. It was also noted that former support points had turned into resistance, which could potentially turn into zones of support again on a short-term basis. It was suggested that the market might experience a pullback to the range of 3960 to 4020, with a possibility of overshooting as low as 3870.
In the September 11, 2022 Market Update, it was reported that the markets had traded as low as 3,886, falling below the low end of the suggested range by roughly 70 points. However, it was also noted that the markets were likely to continue rallying as the selling pressure was easing, bearish readings were high, the masses were uncertain, and the dollar was close to reaching a short-term top.
In the same update, it was suggested that risk-takers should continue holding their positions until the Dow tests the range of 33,600 to 34,000 and the Nasdaq trades to 13,500. At that point, it was suggested that all higher-risk positions should be closed, though it was noted that investors could modify this trade to fit their own trading style.
RGLD is a gold stock that has proven to be a good investment opportunity even during market crashes. By simply buying and holding this stock, an investor could have seen significant gains. In fact, the profits from RGLD began to surge after 2011, which was when the Federal Reserve started to print more money. This shows that the recovery period between market booms and busts is now about 5 times faster than it was in 2009.
However, using a more advanced strategy such as analyzing long-term charts (monthly charts) can lead to even greater returns. By using these charts to determine when to buy and sell, an investor could potentially double their returns. For example, an investor could use monthly charts to enter and exit the market while the trend is still positive. Experienced traders could take this strategy a step further by using weekly charts to make more frequent trades within the overall trend determined by the monthly chart. This strategy involves selling when the stock is trading in the overbought range and repurchasing when it moves into the oversold range. It is important to note that this advanced strategy should only be attempted by traders with some knowledge of technical analysis.
Overall, the lesson here is that by remaining calm and not giving in to fear, an investor can achieve outstanding gains over the long term. History has shown that this is possible, even during times of market volatility. It is especially important to be aware of the narratives being created by top players in the market, as they may try to prematurely create the illusion that the bull market is dead forever. These players have significant financial power, and they may continue to manipulate the market in this way with increasing frequency. It is crucial for investors to prepare themselves psychologically for these tactics in order to avoid potential losses.
It is important to note that the information provided in the statement is purely speculative and not based on factual evidence. The statement suggests that some large players in the market intentionally create disasters or crashes in order to profit from the fear and panic of others. It is not clear how these players would be able to consistently create or predict market crashes, and it is not advisable to base investment decisions on speculation or conjecture.
It is never a good idea to blindly follow the strategies of others or to base investment decisions on speculation or conjecture. It is important to carefully research and evaluate any investment decisions and to consider the risks and potential outcomes. It is also important to diversify one’s investment portfolio and to seek professional financial advice before making any major investment decisions.
While it is true that the short-term outlook for the market may not always be favorable, it is important to consider the long-term potential for growth and to look for opportunities to invest in strong, reputable companies. It is possible that 2023 may present some challenges for investors, but it may also offer some fantastic opportunities for those who are astute and tactical in their approach. It is important to carefully consider the risks and potential outcomes of any investment and to make informed decisions based on thorough research and analysis.
Trending Stocks 2020: Before we get into the meat of the article, let’s look at some of the statements we made over the past few weeks. These comments are being extracted from the market update service.
Put your personal feelings aside and understand this simple fact. No bull market has ever ended on a note of fear; it has always ended on a note of extreme joy. Market Update Jan 17, 2020
Since the inception of mass media, the idea has been to stampede the crowd or create a feeling of euphoria and both conditions are deadly when it comes to investing. However, the new ploy is to keep the masses agitated constantly or uncertain. Why would they do this? When someone is uncertain it takes longer for them to cling to a given viewpoint; they keep jumping from one camp to another, and that is one of the reasons why this bull market has lasted so long.
A sharp pullback is still an outcome we view through a very bullish lens. The ideal setup calls for the Dow to trade to the 28,800 to 29,000 ranges, with a possible overshoot to 29,300. After that, a nice sharp pullback would set the bedrock for a surge to and possibly well past 30k. Market Update Dec 29, 2019
The best time to buy is when the masses are in a state of disarray, and this usually occurs when it looks like the markets are crashing. The masses are hardwired to view strong pullbacks as the start of a new crash, but most pullbacks are nothing but resting points; the markets use these stops to build up energy for the next upward leg. Tactical Investors should hope that the market’s pullback strongly, for it provides them with a lovely opportunity to open long positions at a discount.
It is also one of the reasons why in general the small player is still sitting on the sidelines. They still don’t know if they should jump in and buy or if shorting the markets is the right course of action; the longer they remain uncertain, the higher this market will trend. Market update Jan 7, 2020
One can immediately spot that the media takes delight in blowing anything out of proportion as it comes down to eyeballs and dollars. The more bombastic the headline, the more attention it will get, even if this attention is for a few minutes. In the end, we don’t have news today what we have is weaponized gossip.
Stock Trends and The Coronavirus Factor
The Coronavirus issue is going to be blown out of all proportions and it will be made to look like the mother of all pandemics. In fact, we are seeing individuals that are not qualified to make projections on the rate this virus will spread, stating that millions upon millions will be affected.
Now people are being checked with thermometers to see if their temp is above normal and an above-normal temperature has now become the litmus test for the Coronavirus; voodoo science at its best. This is one of the most retarded medical tests of all time, but no one seems to notice; a real-life depiction of “Pluto’s Allegory of the cave”.
CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza (Table 1). The number of influenza-associated illnesses that occurred last season was similar to the estimated number of influenza-associated illnesses during the 2012–2013 influenza season when an estimated 34 million people had symptomatic influenza illness6.http://bit.ly/2UMJjMG
In comparison to the flu virus, the Coronavirus has caused a minimal amount of damage yet it has received 100X more coverage than the flu virus, which resulted in 34.200 deaths (and only US data is being used).
Worldwide, tobacco use causes more than 7 million deaths per year.2 If the pattern of smoking all over the globe doesn’t change, more than 8 million people a year will die from diseases related to tobacco use by 2030. http://bit.ly/2wcEl1s
Many of the masks that individuals are wearing are not that useful against viruses and even the masks that might provide protection need to be worn correctly. http://bit.ly/2HklQKB. Other experts state that masks are useless as the virus is spread through the eyes. http://bit.ly/2SCjfkw
Stock Trends 2020 Conclusion
There is a 75% chance that the markets will experience at least one strong pullback this year, it would be foolhardy to attempt to predict the exact date though it would be ideal if this event took place during the 1st quarter. Market Update Feb 20, 2020
This correction is taking place in the ideal timeline so it when it ends it will lead to a spectacular rally, those waiting for the crosswinds to subside will (as always) be left holding a can with rotting worms.
The masses beg for an opportunity to buy stocks at a lower price when that opportunity arises the masses panic stating that they need to wait for things to get better before jumping in again. And so they wait, and when things finally get better, they notice that the price of everything they wanted to buy is higher than it was before and so starts the next stage of sorrow.
Notice anything odd above in terms of market sentiment. The markets have sold off, so one would expect bearish readings to soar north off 55. Instead, while they have risen, they are only at 41. What’s very interesting is that the number of individuals in the neutral camp is holding steady at 33 and this confirms that the masses are still uncertain, which means that the rebound from this correction will push the market to new highs.
This market has yet to experience the “feeding frenzy stage,” and we expect the action to be twice as powerful as the current downward action gripping the markets. We expect the Dow to experience upward moves ranging from 500 to 1000 points several times before the market even come close to hitting a massive long term top. The needle on the anxiety gauge has swept deep into the hysteria zone extremely rapidly indicating the crowd is one stop from moving into a zone that until now, we did not create “the madness zone”. If the gauge moves into this zone, then we could end up having an event that will come to be known as the “father of all buying events.”
Courtesy of Tactical Investor
7 Hot Stocks for 2020’s Big Trends
With 2019 coming to a close, it’s both a time to reflect and to ponder the future of hot stocks for 2020. If I had to summarize the markets this year in one word, it’d be China. Through much back-and-forth rhetoric, the U.S.-China trade war dominated the investment and political narrative. Unfortunately, based on recent presidential threats, this conflict could be with us for a while.
But if we finally get a substantive trade deal signed, one of the biggest catalysts for hot stocks for 2020 will be technology. Over the years, we’ve seen small upstarts disrupt long established markets. For the next few years, I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest that the old dogs will play new tricks. Specifically, the 5G rollout offers giant, well-resourced organizations a second wind.
Of course, forecasting the most profitable hot stocks for 2020 is a gargantuan task. Still, I think a reliable factor that you can trust is demographics. Although most countries undergo serious social change, arguably few nations are subject to dramatic paradigm shifts like the U.S. Particularly, the aging of two key demographic groups may offer substantial returns for the patient investor.
Lastly, evolving social mores and rising awareness will most likely impart political transitions. And that will invariably impact industries that depend on favorable public sentiment to catalyze growth. So, without further ado, here are my picks for seven hot stocks for 2020 to consider Full Story
20 of the Top Stocks to Buy in 2020
Before we get to the stocks, let’s acknowledge that these lists are tough.
Choosing the best stocks to buy today depends so much on your individual financial situation. To get a good read on where you stand, read our How to Invest Guide. It walks you through topics like establishing an emergency fund, asset allocation, when it makes sense to buy stocks, etc.
Now, onto the 20 stock ideas. Here’s the entire list, followed by the summary buy thesis for each one.
The Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSEMKT:VTI)
The Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (NASDAQ:VXUS)
Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN)
Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)
Facebook (NASDAQ:FB)
Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:ISRG)
Axon Enterprises (NASDAQ:AAXN)
AT&T (NYSE:T)
Verizon Communications (NYSE:VZ)
Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F)
General Motors Company (NYSE:GM)
ONEOK (NYSE:OKE)
TerraForm Power (NASDAQ:TERP)
Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. (NYSE:BIP)
CareTrust REIT (NASDAQ:CTRE)
iRobot (NASDAQ:IRBT)
lululemon athletica (NASDAQ:LULU)
Wayfair (NYSE:W)
Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX)
Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ)
The first two are a bit of a cheat because they’re actually exchange-traded funds (ETFs). ETFs allow you broad exposure to a basket of stocks, and these two are some of the best low-cost index funds around:
US Stocks: The Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
Foreign Stocks: The Vanguard Total International Stock ETF
The first ETF (VTI) gives you exposure to basically the entire U.S. stock market by investing in over 4,000 stocks. Full Story
Strangely and (possibly) sadly, bonds and the equities markets seem to be paying no heed to the ever-growing debt, which has just surpassed the $22 trillion mark.
Bonds are looking for any reason to mount a long term rally, after being held hostage to the Fake threat of inflation. A very desperate Fed t is trying to maintain the illusion that the USD is the strongest currency in the world. This was achieved by shoring up interest rates even though the data (yes we know its manipulated but since it has been always been manipulated it should be used fairly in raising and lowering rates) since the onset has indicated that inflation is a non-event.
The Fed appears to be operating like an insane person that is convinced his left toe is talking to him. However, most central bankers are not taking the same path, and some emerging nations are only raising rates because they are being forced to in order to defend their currency against a stronger dollar.
A monthly close above 147 will most likely push bonds to the 152-154 ranges with an overshoot as high as 159.00. The long term outlook for interest rates is negative; in other words, rates are heading lower and savers are going to be punished again.
Global Currency War
When the Fed started its rate hiking program we stated in our view the premise behind this move was to make the US dollar the most attractive currency in the world in the midst of the global currency war that has been taking place for over a decade. In this race to the bottom, the idea is to finish last. The US continues to rack up huge debts, and in order to continue doing this, it is currency has to look attractive.
When it starts to lower rates again and it will be forced to do so, it will be starting from a very high point, and as it lowers rates, other developed nations will be forced to follow suit; you ask why? Nations want to have a competitive advantage when it comes to exports. China and Germany understand that better than most nations.
Germany abuses the EU
Germany has in essence been abusing the EU via the Euro: it has found a way to raise its exports to levels it would never have been in a position to do so under the German Mark. If it were using the “Mark“, it is currency would be 20% higher and its exports would be nowhere near current levels. So it seems that US Debt To GDP ratio is something nobody cares about or no one is paying attention too; at least that is what the top players appear to be doing.
For the astute investor that is paying attention to the US Debt To GDP ratio, the best way to protect your assests is to view stock market crashes as buying opportunities. Until fiat is eliminated the Fed will always intervene and prop the market up again and therefore market crashes provide the smart player with a chance to purchase top rated companies at a huge discount.
Why the US can afford a stronger currency
The US is not an export-dependent market so it can afford to have a currency that is valued slightly higher, than most. As the US will be starting from an advantageous position, it is currency will still be attractive relative to other major currencies, even when it starts to lower rates. Most nations economies are export dependent so as the US lowers rates they will be forced to do so in kind, which effectively means that the USD will maintain its position as one of the most attractive currencies out there. It is a splendid plan, but the Fed has to be careful that it does not overplay its hand.
As we stated not too long ago, worldwide debt is soaring; in 2017 it stood at $233 trillion. So what is another trillion here or there; it is already so high that collectively the world’s nations will never be in a position to pay it back.
BOE all Bark and no Bite
The BOE would not be making statements that amount to the ramblings of an insane person if everything was going according to plan; they keep hinting that they are going to raise rates again, but the August rate hike could end up being the last, and they might be forced to make a U-turn. The Brexit chaos has already affected economic activity in Britain, and the once robust housing sector is grinding to a halt. House sales fell to their weakest level in five years. The BOE would have to be extremely daft to raise rates in such an environment.
EU playing game of Cat and Mouse
They have done nothing. One minute they state they are ready to raise rates, the next minute they cite new issues that call for more caution. Here is the latest from Draghi:
“We need to monitor these trade risks very carefully over the coming months,” Draghi said. “However, we still see the overall risks to the growth outlook as broadly balanced, in large part because the underlying drivers of domestic demand remain in place.”Full story
In other words, Draghi is saying; we will state that there is a need for a rate hike, but we will not do anything about it because the outlook is quite terrible
Japan, on the other hand, cannot afford a very strong currency
The Boj hs continued to huff and puff but other than that they have done nothing and it will be hard pressed to do anything. Interest rates were left untouched at -0.1% citing
The central bank also revised down inflation forecasts again, saying that the momentum toward achieving the price stability target of 2 percent is not sufficiently firm despite years of massive monetary easing. Interest Rate in Japan averaged 2.81 percent from 1972 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 9 percent in December of 1973 and a record low of -0.10 percent in January of 2016.
The inflation forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2019 was lowered to 0.9 percent from 1.1 percent previously estimated. Also, the central bank now expects inflation to average 1.4 percent for fiscal 2019 (vs 1.5 percent) and 1.5 percent for fiscal 2020 (vs 1.6 percent). Full Story
Interesting development on the weekly and Monthly charts
We have a very interesting development; under normal circumstances when the weekly and monthly charts are trading in the oversold ranges, the ensuing move up is almost always huge. Utilities typically don’t fare well in a rising rate environment, but the MACD’s on the Monthly charts of the Dow utilities are also very close to experiencing a bullish crossover; we have several strong factors indicating that rates should drift lower. The only thing that could delay this trend is a stubborn Fed. Mass psychology states that one should focus on investments that the masses are either ignoring or unaware off. Hardly anyone is aware of the stealth bull market that is taking place in the bond arena.
Courtesy of Tactical Investor
Random views on USA Debt To GDP
The National Debt Explained
The national debt level of the United States is a measure of how much the U.S. government owes its creditors. Since the government almost always spends more than it takes in, the national debt continues to rise. As of January 3, 2019, the national debt stands at $21.974 trillion, according to the U.S. Treasury Dept. It has increased 10 percent since President Trump took office in January of 2017. Under President Obama, the national debt increased 100 percent, from $10 trillion to $20 trillion. It is easy to understand why people (beyond politicians and economists) are starting to pay close attention to the issue these days. Unfortunately, the manner in which the debt level is explained to the public is usually pretty obscure. Couple this problem with the fact that many individuals do not understand how the national debt level affects their daily lives, and you have a centerpiece for discussion — and confusion. National Debt vs. Budget Deficits First, it’s important to understand what the difference is between the federal government’s annual budget deficit (or fiscal deficit) and the outstanding federal debt (or the national public debt, the official accounting term). Full Story
What Is the National Debt in 2019 and What Does It Actually Mean?
If there is one thing you take from this article, one single fact worth pulling out, it’s this: The national debt has no analogy to personal finances. There is absolutely no national credit card, no tab for some other nation to “call in,” each American does not “owe” $42,998.12. It is a borderline disservice to our readers even linking to that last source because none of this exists. It’s fake, fantastical and make-believe. These ideas come from the fiscal version of Narnia, where economists do battle against rational hobgoblins wielding enchanted slide rules. If you ever find yourself comparing the national debt to a household checkbook, step back through the nearest wardrobe. Hard. Repeatedly. Good. Now that’s out of the way. Note: All numbers are accurate and current at time of writing. What Is the National Debt? The national debt is the full measure of currently issued government securities. When the government’s combined public and internal obligations exceed its total revenue, it issues securities such as bonds, notes and bills which add to the national debt. The U.S. Gross National Debt is approximately $21.9 trillion. This debt comes in two forms: intra-governmental and public. Full Story
Why the $22 trillion national debt doesn’t matter – here’s what you should worry about instead
The U.S. federal government’s debt load hit another milestone this month: It’s now a record US$22 trillion in nominal terms. That’s $67,000 for every man, woman and child living in the U.S., and it’s up $2 trillion since President Donald Trump took office in 2017. For comparison, U.S. debt is more than the total size of the United States’ $20 trillion economy and equivalent to the gross domestic products of China, Japan and Germany combined. This hefty sum is a reflection of the large annual budget deficits that the federal government has run, pretty much continuously, since 1931. Prior to that, surpluses were much more common, apart from the years following the Civil War. With another round of anxiety-causing debt-ceiling debates likely to return in the coming months, like other economists, I believe it is worth asking whether we should even care about the size of government debt. Default isn’t imminent First of all, it’s important to note current U.S. debt levels do not indicate any risk of imminent default. As long as the U.S. federal government remains an “ongoing concern” – fiscal institutions are strong and effective, taxing authority is maintained and the long-run productive capacity of the nation’s economy is secure – there is no economic reason to fear default on the nation’s debt. Political reasons, such as debt-ceiling mischief, are another matter. Full Story
Has moved deeper into the oversold ranges since our last analysis (Nov 30 Market update)
AXP
Extremely Overbought
AAPL
Extremely Overbought
Plenty of room to pull back before it moves into the oversold ranges
BA
Oversold
Very close to moving into the extremely oversold ranges
CAT
Oversold
Very close to entering the extremely oversold Zone
CVX
Overbought
CSCO
Extremely overbought
Relatively new Bearish MACD crossover
KO
Extremely oversold
Holding up nicely and trending upwards. Dow players can use pullbacks to open positions
DIS
Oversold
Could make for an interesting long term play
DWDP
Extremely oversold
50-52 ranges could be a good place to nibble at the stock
XOM
Oversold
MACD’s in Bearish crossover
GS
Oversold
MACD’s in Bearish crossover, likely to hit 160-165 before a bottom is in place Nov 30 market update. The stock traded in the above ranges and then bounced higher. The 160-165 ranges could be a good place to nibble at the stock.
HD
Extremely oversold
Entering into the seasonally bullish period; 160-163 ranges are a good place to nibble at this play.
IBM
Extremely oversold
Pattern is improving
INTC
Overbought
JNJ
Oversold
Holding up very well, trending higher. A test of the 120 ranges without closing below this level on a monthly basis will be a bullish development
JPM
Overbought
MCD
Extremely oversold
Unusually strong, trending upwards. Ideal entry points for an initial position 160-162
MRK
Neutral
Strong pattern
MSFT
Insanely overbought
Bearish MACD crossover, potential shorting candidate for risk takers
NKE
Insanely overbought
Bearish crossover in progress
PFE
Overbought
PG
Extremely oversold
Bullish MACD crossover, and solid pattern
TRV
Extremely oversold
$110 better; a good place to nibble
UTX
Oversold
Close to trading towards the extremely oversold ranges
UNH
Oversold
Moving towards the extremely oversold ranges, but the pattern is stable, the next bullish crossover could lead to an explosive move
VZ
Neutral
Bullish MACD crossover in progress should continue trending to new highs
V
Insanely overbought
Bearish MACD crossover, good shorting candidate for risk takers
WMT
Oversold
Moving towards the oversold zone. 84-86 good place for a nibble
WBA
Insanely oversold
Bullish MACD crossover, pattern improving.
The Dow 30 stocks should be signaling all is not well, but?
We have three more stocks for a total of 18 that are now trading in the oversold to extremely oversold ranges since the last analysis. It, therefore, seems highly unlikely that the markets will crash under such conditions. The best plan, therefore, should be to switch the TV off as listening to the talking heads can only be viewed as a healthy thing if you like taking a hammer to your head.
Listen to music, watch a movie, read a book, and sip on your favorite drink. For when it is all said and done, which by the way it never is, for if this were true, the talking heads would keep quiet and focus on the phrase “silence is golden”. I digress, so when it is all said and done, these talking heads bring nothing new to the table; their best gift is to regurgitate verbal vomit and try to market it as something new.
Mass Psychology clearly advocates that stock market crashes are nothing but long term buying opportunities. Pull up a long term chart and you will be forced to arrive at the same conclusion. The Big player’s game strategy is to get individuals to focus on words such as bear market, crash, and end of the world, etc.; in doing so, the crowd focuses on the tree and forgets the forest.
Courtesy of Tactical Investor
Random Views on the Dow 30 stocks
Dow 30 Stocks: 2019 Comparative Performances And Prospects By Grant Henning, Ph.D.
Summary 2019 year-to-date, share-price-percentage gains for all 30 DJIA stocks. Comparative 2019 dividend offerings for all 30 DJIA stocks. Comparative 52-week momentum by relative strength, bounce/lag momentum, and regression residual methodologies. Ranked summative prospects for Dow 30 stocks. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Value & Momentum Breakouts get exclusive access to our model portfolio. Start your free trial today » This is a special contribution article by Prof. Grant Henning based on his published research on the BLM technical theory. The model and comments are expressly based on his own proprietary methodology and forecasts. Comparative Analysis of Dow 30 Stocks There is generally high interest in the performances of the 30 large-cap stocks comprising the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This is because these stocks are perceived as low risk, highly liquid, reliable holdings for long-term investors, pension funds, endowments, and hedge funds. Added to their promise of steady, low-volatile growth, is the prospect of dependable dividends. These benefits make these stocks ideal holdings for large-scale, low-risk investors. Aggressive individual stock traders often shy away from these stocks because of the perception that such stocks are unlikely to produce the same high levels of growth that are available through some more volatile small-cap and micro-cap stocks. However, it will appear below that this perception is not always accurate. Clearly, some Dow 30 stocks do outperform many smaller cap stocks on the other major indices. Full Story
Dow Jones Stocks To Buy And Watch In April 2019
After a blistering two-month start to 2019, the Dow Jones industrials slowed its pace in March. But there are clear winners — and losers — at the end of the first quarter of 2019. Among the Dow Jones stocks, a number of members are in or near buy zones, including blue chip stock Apple (AAPL) and chip giant Intel (INTC). Boeing (BA) was the top-performing Dow Jones stock through February with a scorching return of over 36%. But Boeing stock gave up its leadership mantle when it plunged over 13% in March, in the wake of the Ethiopian airplane crash. Cisco Systems (CSCO), International Business Machines (IBM), United Technologies (UTX) and Apple are the top four performers through the first quarter. On the downside, the bottom three stocks through the first quarter are Walgreen Boots Alliance (WBA), Pfizer (PFE) and Coca Cola (KO). Since the start of the year, the three Dow Jones stocks are down 7.4%, 2.7% and 1%, respectively. Year to date, the Dow Jones industrials have gained 11% through March after trading mostly unchanged for the month. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite and S&P 500 index are up 16.5% and 13.1% through the March 29 close, respectively. Full Story
The 5 Best Dow Jones Stocks to Buy Now
Despite all the pundit noise and hate, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is still a wonderful place to find great stocks and big-time dividends. The thirty Dow Jones stocks are still powerhouses in their respective fields and feature enviable moats, large cash flows and big-time profits. With the Dow 30, you really are getting the top dogs of America’s economic landscape. There’s a reason why nearly $20.2 billion still sits in the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSEARCA:DIA), and that’s because the index remains a pretty solid collection of blue-chip stocks. But not all thirty stocks in the Dow Jones index are big buys at the current moment. Some — be glad you didn’t buy General Electric Company (NYSE:GE) when it was still in the Dow 30 — are actually lousy to purchase in today’s market. With that in mind, here are five of the best Dow Jones stocks to buy right now! Full Story
Trading is all about Volatility: the Media is all about hoax
Market crash and Media Hoax: Volatility readings have shot to a new high; 2018 has been a very active year as far as this indicator goes. This indicator has provided and continues to provide (advance) warning that traders should be prepared to deal with a more volatile market. Volatility is a terrible thing, only if one allows one’s emotions to do the talking; otherwise, it should be viewed through a positive lens as it keeps the masses uncertain.
On Monday (Dec 24), we had the worst Christmas Eve session in history. On Wednesday, another milestone was achieved; the Dow experienced its largest one day point gain ever. On Thursday, we set another record; the markets experienced the largest intraday reversal in over ten years. Such moves confirm uncertainty is at the helm and bull markets have never ended on a note of uncertainty.
There are certain things that it’s fairly easy to predict far in advance, because they happen with routine regularity: The sun will rise in the morning, Christmas will be held on December 25, the Detroit Lions will not win the Super Bowl.
But there’s a difference between those certainties and trying to claim any real confidence about events that are by and large impossible to know in advance: what cultural issues will be salient political topics next year, what non-Mueller subject will President Donald Trump fulminate about on Twitter tomorrow.
And yet, in an age of social media, everybody is now a pundit—which is not a bad thing, but often takes the shape of overconfident prognostications that are more often wishes about what we hope happens rather than thoughtful analyses of what will.
As 2018 draws to a close and we again turn our thoughts to the new year, POLITICO Magazine brings you its fifth annual “worst predictions” list, reflecting on the gulf between what actually happened this year and what some people were so sure would.
Extreme Uncertainty should be viewed through a bullish lens
This market is not only experiencing an extended bout of volatility, but it is going through a bipolar phase as politics is being used as a weapon to move the markets. Without getting into details, politics (as politics, unless it’s related to the markets, is beyond the scope of this publication) is being used in a wicked manner to turn the masses on each other and to whip the markets. Whether you love or hate Trump, one thing stands out like a sore thumb; the media have never attacked a sitting president in such an aggressive manner. Trump has probably been attacked more than the last four presidents combined. Indirectly, this is having a significant impact on the markets.
Emotions drive stock markets
If you drive the masses insane with the rage, the driving force behind the markets change. Now you have a rage/frustration factor to add to the equation. The press has decided to turn regular politics into a weapon of mass destruction. Every single, stupid, meaningless event is turned into some political story. Today’s reporters are akin to prostitutes who will do the bidding of the highest bidder. Most of them would be perfect candidates for electric shock therapy, for only a severely disturbed person could hold a straight face while falsely pushing out stories under the guise of news when at best they would fall under the category of C**P.
We are not only talking about the events that are occurring in the US but all over the world. For example, look at the way the press and the elites are going out of their way to subvert the will of the people regarding Brexit by using every dirty trick in the book. They are falsely laying out stories that border on the surreal regarding the fallout Britain will suffer if it leaves the EU; these stories are rubbish, and in the long run, Britain would thrive by ridding itself of the shackles the EU has imposed on it. This tactic of mixing economics with politics to create uncertainty in the markets is being used quite ruthlessly. However, it is a deviation of the same old con; get the masses to dump quality shares at rock bottom prices.
When Emotions Talk, The Money Walks
Bear in mind we are examining the data from a trend perspective and not an emotional perspective. It is the press that is willfully weaponizing the news and going out its way to sow the seeds of division, and in doing so, they have created so much angst and uncertainty, that these emotions finally found their way into the markets. One day the significant correction of 2018 will be used as an example to illustrate how an out of control press went out of its way to print rubbish instead of facts, in order to manipulate the perceptions of the masses.
We went on record to state that if Trump won the elections, that from an investment perspective it would be a fantastic development for the markets. Moreover, these statements were made before he was declared the winner. After he won the election, we went on record to state that the political landscape would resemble a soap opera on steroids.
If you want to rob a man without resistance, then all you need to do is make him focus on an issue that makes his blood boil. That is what is going now; the masses are being given two main options, both of which lead to unfavorable outcomes. We expect the attacks on Trump to surge to even higher levels, but from nowhere the resistance will suddenly coalesce and mount a counter attack. However, this was the grand plan all along; conquer via division.
Now as the masses are inflamed and filled with rage, laws will be passed that will make it insanely easier for corporations especially banks to rob them. Never allow emotions to drive the decision-making process; the outcome is always bad in the long run.
Since bottoming in March 2009 the stock market has seen plenty of pullbacks (5% to 9.9% declines) and corrections. In 2011 we even came within a stone’s throw of an actual bear market. Each correction is associated with its own market fears, specifically obsessing over risks to the economic and earnings fundamentals that ultimately determine share prices.
In 2011 it was fears over the European Sovereign debt crisis and the US debt ceiling showdown (US lost its AAA credit rating from S&P) that was supposed to plunge the world back into recession and send earnings tanking. In 2015 (a year which saw two corrections) it was fears over China’s slowing growth, rising interest rates, and crashing oil prices (sound familiar?)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a-xpKMfsyWM
Now the market’s “wall of worry” is once more about Fed rate hikes, slowing growth (due to the trade war which is likely to end by February) and overall slowing global growth rates (plus a yield curve inversion in the US). But guess what? The stock market has generated 9.2% CAGR total returns since 1871 through far worse events than these current risks. We’ve suffered depressions, World Wars, killer flu pandemics (1918 Spanish flu killed 5% of the world’s population), and numerous recessions and financial crises. Unless you think the world is literally going to end it’s almost certain that the stock market will be higher over the next five to 15 years.
Bears are out in full force, claiming that the world is coming to an end.
Now think about this; How many perma-bears are rich? The truth is that most perma-bears have been bankrupted several times over. Bull markets last longer than bear markets, and the returns are significantly higher.
Despite the rally, the gauge on anxiety index is still trading outside the extreme of extreme zones and bearish sentiment increased by another two points. Individuals from the neutral camp migrated towards the bullish and bearish camps. Bearish sentiment is very close to surging to a seven-year high. A move to the 57 ranges would achieve this feat.
Insiders are on a massive buying spree
Insider buying has surged to an eight-year high. These guys have insights into their companies, and if the markets were going to fall apart, they would not be investing their cash into a dying asset.
The number of corporate executives and officers scooping up shares of their own companies has doubled in the past two months from the prior two. As a result, insider buyers are outpacing sellers by the most since August 2011, data compiled by The Washington Service showed.
“Insiders are pretty well informed at the micro level of their businesses,” Todd Fungard, who oversee $1.2 billion as chief investment officer of McQueen, Ball & Associates Inc., said by phone. “It’s a good sign that business leaders still see demand at their companies and feel comfortable buying their own stock despite the headline risk.”
The last time insider buying spiked in this fashion, in August 2011, the S&P 500 was in the middle of a 19 percent retreat before staging a 10 percent rally in each of the next two quarters. Full Story
Stock Market Bull run 2019. For those that pursued our recommendations of not surrendering to fear and rushing with the group, the prizes are beginning to stream in. Most importantly, we scored our first grand slam for the year, shutting a large portion of our situation in AMKR calls for practically 125% in increases. Dread never satisfies; figure out how to manage it today, or hazard paying the dread premium forever. Over the years we have found out that the most significant dynamic force that drives the markets is emotions. Psychology is the study of emotions and mass psychology is the study of the masses.This is why we put this section together. The stocks for dummies part focuses on the KISS principle; Keep it simple stupid. Our, focus is on teaching individuals, how to use Mass Psychology to their advantage. To figure out how to angle you need to comprehend that dread has no spot in the condition of life; this is something pretty much every administration out there deliberately disregards since they would prefer not to show their endorsers how to angle. Unfortunately, what is far and away more terrible is that a considerable lot of them don’t realize how to angle themselves.
The Masses are still nervous. Overall the masses are still nervous as can be seen by looking at the sentiment data above. While the number of bulls has risen, there are still too many individuals in the neutral camp. Additionally, the markets are climbing a wall of worry, which is a very bullish development. Trade wars, government shutdown, political infighting, and a host of other events; despite this, the markets are trending upwards, slowly but surely. Eventually, when one or two of these negative factors are eliminated there is every reason to believe that the markets will explode. In opposition to what most master’s express the majority drive the business sectors, and the majority choices are altogether motivated by feeling. Hence in the event that you distinguish the feeling that is driving the majority, you can at first put the standards of contrarian investing into play. In any case, rather than salvaging when things begin to warm up, the laws of mass brain research are used. Mass brain research expresses that you possibly desert and venture when the majority are foaming with bliss and the other way around.Fear does not pay, and we once again proved that in real time; when the markets were pulling back sharply, we refused to give into to it and to all of you that took a similar path, congratulations are in order. Until the masses turn euphoric, stock market bull run 2019 will remain in play.
Stock Market Bull run 2019 will Fool Market Timers Now the reason most market timers fail is that they are trying to time the markets and therein lays the mistake. They should be timing the emotion. Emotions drive the markets; everything else is noise. Identify the emotion, and you identify the trend, and then the rest is history. The masses are always wrong in the long run and therefore if they are euphoric, its time to move to cash or short and vice versa. Remember mass psychology is not about identifying a change in emotion but identifying extreme changes, and that is where it differs from contrarian investing. We do not take an opposite stance until the emotion driving the masses hits a boiling point. Bottom line, there is going to be a lot more nonsense thrown out there, but until the masses are ecstatic, this market is unlikely to crash.
The mass mindset is wired for failure. The normal dealer has a tangled perspective on the business sectors and the world. They are everlastingly eager to twist the meaning of hazard and chance to suit whatever point of view is playing the lead job right now. At the point when costs are low, they accept that it is the wrong time to purchase since they will undoubtedly go lower, and when they are taking off upwards, they expect that it is the opportune time to purchase since they will undoubtedly take off considerably higher. The idea of hazard to remunerate is tossed out of the window; they state they look for an open door with generally safe, yet their activities talk generally. No Bull Market has ever finished on a note of dread; they end when the group is in a condition of delight.
One needs to comprehend the contrast between a fight and a war. You can lose a few fights yet at the same time win the war, or win numerous fights and still end up losing the war. It boils down to how much harm you bring about instead of losing or winning the fight. On the off chance that you limit the harm, you can lose a few fights straight, retreat and regroup and return and win the war.
Each positively trending business sector encounters no less than one sharp pullback (shakeout).
One never knows when that will happen precisely. A shakeout isn’t equivalent to a market putting in a long haul top. The enormous players need somebody to pitch these stocks to before they money out.
Not at all like the shakeout stage, one can distinguish a fixing stage dependent on market conclusion. Amid the garnish stage, the majority remain surprisingly versatile when the market encounters a sharp redress; they have now been persuade that each pullback is a chance. At the point when the majority trust this, its opportunity to set out toward the slopes. Case and point Bitcoin. All through its fall, the majority stayed bullish, and in spite of the overwhelming beating it has officially taken specialists are as yet issuing crazy targets even now when Bitcoin is exchanging underneath 5K, which implies that Bitcoin its chances hitting 3K are far higher than 15K.
In each case, from an extended point of view, when the SOX found itself trading within these boundaries, it proved to be a brilliant long-term investment. A proper turnaround is near when our secondary indicator (MACD 2) drops below three on the lower panel. In at least one event (as shown by this very chart), the mentioned indicator hit rock bottom and failed to complete its entire cycle. However, this unexpectedly turned into an even greater opportunity.
