Hidden Pulse

Value investing is dead?

Value investing

Value Investing is dead Update Dec 2019

Value investing appears to be dead?
Many subscribers have asked us why we don’t focus or pay more attention to fundamentals. One of the main pieces of data EPS can and is being easily manipulated via share buybacks, so that puts the whole concept of value investing or investing based on fundamentals into the toilet. Secondly, the data is provided in a standardised format, which means that almost every investor that uses it will more or less arrive at the same conclusion.
Move to mass psychology; very few have even heard of this topic, and there is no standardised book or formula to follow. There are very few books that even cover the topic adequately, and almost none of these books apply the topic of MP accurately when it comes to investing. As when choosing a cure for erectile dysfunction. Technical analysis is also interesting in that regard, for its based on an individual’s interpretation of a given pattern. You have to see the pattern and no two traders will see the exact pattern. Furthermore, we take an out of the box approach when it comes to technical analysis, and for the most part, we customize all our indicators. In a nutshell, that is why we don’t pay too much attention to fundamentals, and this is not a new approach; we have maintained this stance for over 17 years.

Whenever experts state that something is dead, hated or disliked, one has to start viewing that sector in a more favourable light. Value stocks are likely to start trending upwards shortly. We suspect one more wave of pain might be necessary to drive the last holdouts out of this sector.  CALM is an example of a value stock.  When the masses state something is dead, the opposite is usually true. Buy when the masses are panicking and run when they are Euphoric.

Market Sentiment

 

 

The small surge in bullishness appears to be short-lived, what remains constant is the number of individuals in the Neutral camp.  Until the individuals in the bullish camp surge past 70% for several weeks in a row, the markets are unlikely to put in a long-term top.  Corrections ranging from mild to strong is all most investors will have to worry about. Most of the pullbacks will be in the mild to medium ranges with the occasional pullback falling into the “strong” category.  At this point, the odds that the SPX will trade to and past 3000 are now close to 70%.

Despite being extremely overbought, the trend for the major indices of the world (Germany, US, Australia, Britain, etc.) is up.  The Australian markets are still extremely overbought both on the weekly and monthly charts, so at the least investors should wait till our indicators on the weekly charts pullback to the oversold ranges.

This market is in sore need of one strong pullback, but this market is irrational one cannot expect the market to pullback just because it’s trading in the extremely overbought ranges.  Therefore our gameplan is to continue opening long positions in stocks that are extremely oversold on the monthly charts. This plan will remain in force until 1-2 of the major indices like the Dow, SPX or Nasdaq experience a bearish signal on the monthly charts.

 

 

Though the Dow and the SPX are trading in the overbought ranges, on the weekly charts the Dow, as shown above, is gearing up to trend higher. The MACD’s have experienced a bullish crossover right at the halfway point (minimal oversold zone).  We would not be surprised if the Dow traded to the 23650-23800 ranges in the near future.

Risk takers can use pullbacks ranging from 350-450  points to open long positions. The Dow does not need to pull back 350-450 points in one day. For example, it is currently trading slightly above 23400. Risk takers could open long positions from 22950 to the 23050 ranges.

 

 

Published courtesy of the Tactical Investor

Table press table 2

AAPL

TablePRess 2 with YahooF script
date#NAME?        AAPL
IBM230120C00170000
CONTINUE READING

Google Sheet Embeded

   Size: style="width:70%; height:100%; Embed via plugin
CONTINUE READING

Table press table

Market Update Stocks (Current price updated every 15 minutes)
SymbolEntry DateEntry PriceCurent PricePositionComments
HTLDJun 201917.1116.33Open1/3rd of a position 17.401/3rd at 18.90 and 1/3rd at 15.05
HAMar 202120.0513.62Open1/3rd of a position 24.90 and 1/3rd at 15.20.
CRSMar 202138.1741.87Open1/3rd at 38.34 and 1/3rd at 38.00.
FISVMay 2021106.73100.35Open1/3Rd of a position at 114.20 and 1/3rd at 99.27
BWXTMay 202158.4960.79Open1/3rd of a position 64.20, 1/3rd at 58.45 & 1/6th 47.10
AYXJul 202168.4240.44Open1/3rd 83.87, 1/3rd at 68.60 and 1/3rd at 52.80
LDOSAug 202190.33109.49Open1/3rd of a position at 96, and 1/3rd at 84.65. Sold half in may at 110.75 for a gain of 22%. Place a stop at 90.00
COUPAug 2021167.1361.15Open1/3rd at 249 and 1/3rd at 219.45, 1/3rd at 110.00 and 1/3rd at 90.10
TFSLOct 202116.8413.79Open1/3rd at 19.74, 1/3rd at 16.79 and 1/3rd 14.01
MGNIOct 202121.0310.68Open1/3rd of a position 26.04 1/3rd at 20.70 and 1/3rd at 16.35
KMBDec 2021131.2136.01Open1/3rd of a position
RGLDJan 202298.55110.67Open¼ of a position. Sold half at 144.30 in Mar for a gain of 46%.
KJan 20226273.07Open¼ at 63.10 and ¼ at 60.90. Place a stop at 60.00. Sold half at 73.50 in May for a gain of 18.5%
AMDFeb 2022107.6670.27Open¼ at 114, ¼ at 108 and ¼ at 101.
CPBFeb 20224352.99Open¼ of a position.
MSFTFeb 2022272.91245.12Open¼ at 300.60, ¼ at 281.05, ¼ at 257 and ¼ at 253
ASANFeb 20224513.51Open¼ at 57.00, ¼ at 43.20 & ¼ at 34.80
FIVNFeb 202289.164.43Open¼ at 96 and ¼ at 82.20
VALEApr 202214.3716.76Open¼ of a position at 15.84 and ¼ at 12.90
WMTMay 2022128.75149.89Open¼ at 133 & ¼ at 124.50
HALOJul 202244.0456.38Open¼ of a position
APDJul 2022237312.1Open¼ of a position
CFFNFeb 202111.68.29Open1/3rd at 12.40, 1/3rd at 11.22& 1/3rd at 11.19
BHEMar 202127.0228.09Open1/3rd at 28.98 and 1/3rd at 25.05.
TRIPMay 202136.9719.02Open1/3rd of a position 43.80, 1/3rd at 39.06 and 1/3rd at 28.05
MOMOAug 20217.95.74Open1/3rd of a position 12.80, 1/3rd, 9.60,1/3rd at 4.90 and 1/3rd at 4.40
CHPTDec 202116.3610.89Open1/3rd at 20.40, 1/3rd at 16.80, and 1/3rd at 11.90
GPNFeb 202212797.65Open¼ 136.90, ¼ at 126.00 & ¼ at119
HIMXFeb 202210.116.96Open¼ 10.27 and ¼ 9.96
GBTCMar 202223.18.76Open¼ 25.80 and ¼ 20.40
ETHEMar 202214.26.47Open¼ at 19.10 and ¼ 9.30
MJMar 202118.955.67Open1/3rd 20.55 and 1/3rd at 17.35.
TLTAug 2021130.85106.95Open1/3rd 145.80, 1/3rd at 131.20, 1/6th at 115 and 1/6th at 116.10
SAAAug 202126.5522.4Open1/3rd at 27.60 and 1/3rd at 25.50
TMFSep 202121.79.59Open1/3rd at 27.06, 1/6th at 17.10 and 1/6th at 15.60
ULOct 202153.151.17Open1/3rd of a position.
AFRMNov 202190.611.97Open1/3rd at 122.40, 1/3rd at 98.40 and 1/3rd at 51.00
WTWNov 2021224.16246.8Open1/3rd at 232.50, 1/3rd at 224 and 1/3rd at 216.00
XRTDec 202178.3264.93Open1/3rd at 91.50, 1/3rd at 83.25 and 1/3rd at 61.50
FINXJan 202226.819.45Open1/4th at 31.50, ¼ at 28.50 and ¼ at 20.40.
SGOLJan 202217.1116.97Open¼ of a position
TQQQFeb 202242.1520.82Open¼ at 56.10, ¼ at 45.00, ¼ at 41.50 and ¼ at 26.00
DEAFeb 202219.2515.24Open¼ at 20.20 and ¼ at 18
VZMar 202248.5736.89Open¼ at 51.55 and ¼ at 45.60
URAMar 202221.3719.49Open¼ position 23.30 and ¼ at 19.45
XBIJul 202273.580.59Open¼ position
BIBJul 20224859.35Open1/5th of a position
  Market Update Options (Current price updated on Mondays and Fridays)
SymbolEntry DateEntry PriceCurent PricePositionComments
IBM230120C00170000Mar 20212.80.19Open1/3rd of a position 4.50 and 1/3rd at 1.11. Sold half at 2.10 for a loss of 25%
KMB240119C00120000Jun 202217.721.63Open¼ of a position
VALE240119C00013000Jul 20222.93.45Open¼ of a position at 15.84 and ¼ at 12.90
QCOM240119C00125000Jul 202225.422.27Open¼ of a position
AAL230120P00010000Apr 20215.10.12Open1/3rd of a position
CONTINUE READING

Market Psychology: How the crowd always loses in the stock market?

Stock Market Psychology for Dummies: If you have common sense then Mass Psychology is easy to grasp If you understand how the mass mindset operates it provides you with an…
CONTINUE READING